武陵山区典型县域气温变化特征分析——以重庆市酉阳县为例
Analysis and Prediction of Temperature Change in County Area of Southwest Hills and Mountains——A Case Study of Youyang County
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摘要: 基于1955-2016年连续性订正的气温数据，运用线性倾向估计、滑动平均等趋势分析方法，Mann-Kendall、累积距平突变检验方法，Morlet小波分析及R/S分析对酉阳县近60年的气温指标进行了研究，揭示该地区气候变化趋势、特征并进行预测及原因探析.研究显示：酉阳县气温在过去近60年里呈微弱上升趋势，升温率高于IPCC第五次报告中的近130年变暖率，为每10年上升0.13℃，并且在21世纪初期发生了增温突变；四季气温中，冬季各气温要素升高对年均温上升贡献最大，最低值为每10年上升0.171℃；酉阳县年均温演变过程中存在3类时间尺度的周期变化规律，各气温要素基本都存在6～9年的较强震荡周期，平均气温短期预测处于偏暖期；R/S分析表明年均气温Hurst指数为0.88，预示着酉阳县未来气温走势会持续升高.
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关键词:
- 气温变化 /
- 突变 /
- Morlet小波分析 /
- R/S分析 /
- 酉阳县
Abstract: In this study, monthly continuous corrected temperature time series from 1955 to 2016 were collected and means of linear trend analysis, moving average, Mann-Kendall test, accumulated anomaly, Morlet wavelet analysis and R/S analysis were used to diagnose the behavior of temperature so as to reveal the regional climate change trends and its characteristics. The results show that the average annual temperature in the Youyang county increased slightly in recent 60 years, and its increasing rate was 0.13℃/10a which was warmer than the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report nearly 130 warming rate announced, and its abrupt changes were mainly detected in the early 21st century. The seasonal average temperature in this region had an uptrend and the trend was most significant in winter, the minimum value is 0.171℃/10a. Variation of annual mean temperature in Youyang County has three kinds of time scale, the basic elements of temperature have strong shock period of 6 to 9 years and the average temperature short-term forecast is in the warm period. R/S analysis shows that the average temperature of Hurst is 0.88,indicating the continuing rise in temperature in the future.-
Key words:
- temperature change /
- abrupt change /
- Morlet wavelet analysis /
- R/S analysis /
- Youyang county .
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