资源要素组合对城镇化演进“增长阻尼”测度及演化趋势探析

张乐勤

西南师范大学学报(自然科学版)

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资源要素组合对城镇化演进“增长阻尼”测度及演化趋势探析

张乐勤. 资源要素组合对城镇化演进“增长阻尼”测度及演化趋势探析[J]. 西南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 40(8).

引用本文:

张乐勤. 资源要素组合对城镇化演进“增长阻尼”测度及演化趋势探析[J]. 西南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2015, 40(8).

ZHANG Le-qin. On“Drag Effect” Measurement and Evolutionary Trend Analysis of Urbanization Based on Resource Combination[J]. Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2015, 40(8).

Citation:

ZHANG Le-qin. On“Drag Effect” Measurement and Evolutionary Trend Analysis of Urbanization Based on Resource Combination[J]. Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2015, 40(8).

资源要素组合对城镇化演进“增长阻尼”测度及演化趋势探析

张乐勤

池州学院资源环境与旅游系,安徽池州,247000

On“Drag Effect” Measurement and Evolutionary Trend Analysis of Urbanization Based on Resource Combination

ZHANG Le-qin

摘要: 以安徽省为例，采用熵值法对资源要素组合综合指数进行了测算；基于Romer 经济“增长阻尼”模型及经济增长与城镇化发展间半对数关系，采用偏最小二乘回归分析方法，就资源要素组合对经济与城镇化“增长阻尼”进行了测度；运用灰色GM（1，1）模型对其趋势进行了预测，结果表明：①安徽省资源要素综合指数由1997年的0.1388提升至2012年的0.8690；②资源要素组合对经济与城镇化年均“增长阻尼”分别为0.0002460，0.002851；③2015年、2020年资源要素组合对城镇化的“增长阻尼”将分别达0.004487，0.005675．基于研究结果，从依靠科技创新、增强技术要素对资源环境的替代性等6方面，提出了减缓资源要素对城镇化演进约束的政策建议．
- 资源环境 /
- 综合指数 /
- 经济增长 /
- 城镇化 /
- 阻滞效应
Abstract: Taking Anhui Province as an example ,the entropy method is used to calculate the composite in‐dex of resource combination .Based on Romer economic grow th dragging model and the semilog relation‐ship between economic growth and urbanization development ,partial least squares regression method is ap‐plied to measure the“drag effect” of economy and urbanization from resource combination .The grey GM (1 ,1) model is adopted to predict its trend .The results show that 1) the composite index of resource com‐bination was increased from 0 .138 8 in 1997 to 0 .869 0 in 2012 in Anhui Province;2) the annual average“drag effect” of economy and urbanization from resource combination is 0 .000 246 0 and 0 .002 851 respec‐tively ;3) the“drag effect” of urbanization from resource combination will be 0 .004 487 and 0 .005 675 in 2015 and 2020 respectively .Based on the results of the study ,the policy recommendations are proposed to mitigate the constraints of resource combination on urbanization from six aspects including relying on sci‐entific and technological innovation and enhancing the alternation of technical elements on resource envi‐ronment .
- resource environment，composite index，economic grow th，urbanization，drag effect /

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资源要素组合对城镇化演进“增长阻尼”测度及演化趋势探析

张乐勤

池州学院资源环境与旅游系,安徽池州,247000

关键词:

摘要: 以安徽省为例，采用熵值法对资源要素组合综合指数进行了测算；基于Romer 经济“增长阻尼”模型及经济增长与城镇化发展间半对数关系，采用偏最小二乘回归分析方法，就资源要素组合对经济与城镇化“增长阻尼”进行了测度；运用灰色GM（1，1）模型对其趋势进行了预测，结果表明：①安徽省资源要素综合指数由1997年的0.1388提升至2012年的0.8690；②资源要素组合对经济与城镇化年均“增长阻尼”分别为0.0002460，0.002851；③2015年、2020年资源要素组合对城镇化的“增长阻尼”将分别达0.004487，0.005675．基于研究结果，从依靠科技创新、增强技术要素对资源环境的替代性等6方面，提出了减缓资源要素对城镇化演进约束的政策建议．

English Abstract

On“Drag Effect” Measurement and Evolutionary Trend Analysis of Urbanization Based on Resource Combination

池州学院资源环境与旅游系,安徽池州,247000

Keywords:

Abstract: Taking Anhui Province as an example ,the entropy method is used to calculate the composite in‐dex of resource combination .Based on Romer economic grow th dragging model and the semilog relation‐ship between economic growth and urbanization development ,partial least squares regression method is ap‐plied to measure the“drag effect” of economy and urbanization from resource combination .The grey GM (1 ,1) model is adopted to predict its trend .The results show that 1) the composite index of resource com‐bination was increased from 0 .138 8 in 1997 to 0 .869 0 in 2012 in Anhui Province;2) the annual average“drag effect” of economy and urbanization from resource combination is 0 .000 246 0 and 0 .002 851 respec‐tively ;3) the“drag effect” of urbanization from resource combination will be 0 .004 487 and 0 .005 675 in 2015 and 2020 respectively .Based on the results of the study ,the policy recommendations are proposed to mitigate the constraints of resource combination on urbanization from six aspects including relying on sci‐entific and technological innovation and enhancing the alternation of technical elements on resource envi‐ronment .