重庆数值预报后处理系统技术研究

高松,杜钦,吴钲,赵磊,高阳华

doi:10.13718/j.cnki.xsxb.2018.11.020

西南师范大学学报(自然科学版)

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重庆数值预报后处理系统技术研究

高松,杜钦,吴钲,赵磊,高阳华. 重庆数值预报后处理系统技术研究[J]. 西南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 43(11): 125-134. doi: 10.13718/j.cnki.xsxb.2018.11.020

引用本文:

高松,杜钦,吴钲,赵磊,高阳华. 重庆数值预报后处理系统技术研究[J]. 西南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 43(11): 125-134. doi: 10.13718/j.cnki.xsxb.2018.11.020

GAO Song, DU Qin, WU Zheng, ZHAO Lei, GAO Yang-hua. Technical Research on Chongqing Numerical Forecast Post-Processing System[J]. Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2018, 43(11): 125-134. doi: 10.13718/j.cnki.xsxb.2018.11.020

Citation:

GAO Song, DU Qin, WU Zheng, ZHAO Lei, GAO Yang-hua. Technical Research on Chongqing Numerical Forecast Post-Processing System[J]. Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2018, 43(11): 125-134. doi: 10.13718/j.cnki.xsxb.2018.11.020

重庆数值预报后处理系统技术研究

高松,杜钦,吴钲,赵磊,高阳华

重庆市气象科学研究所, 重庆 401147

Technical Research on Chongqing Numerical Forecast Post-Processing System

GAO Song, DU Qin, WU Zheng, ZHAO Lei, GAO Yang-hua

Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing 401147, China

摘要: 重庆风暴尺度快速更新同化预报系统（CQSSRAFS）是基于ARPS和WRF建立的数值预报业务系统.本研究首先对该系统进行了简要介绍，然后对其后处理模块的构建与相关技术方法进行阐述，以2014年两次区域暴雨过程为例，给出3种后处理模块—wrfpost （基于NCL）、arpsplot （基于ARPS）和wrf2micaps的运行流程、各类预报产品，同时，对中尺度预报、快速更新同化预报和micaps格式的数值预报产品进行解释与说明.中尺度预报中特别是降水、温湿场、风场以及T-lnP图相关预报产品对短期预报具有较好的指导意义；快速更新同化预报中生成的降水、雷达反射率、风切变和强对流指数等相关预报产品对短临预报有较好的参考价值.此外，wrf2micaps后处理模块生成的micaps格式产品为预报员的使用提供了方便，也为模式检验和其他产品的开发提供了基础.3种数值预报后处理模块的构建为重庆数值预报业务的运行提供了有力保障，后期需对其进行更多的优化测试，以提高运行效率和丰富适合本地的产品种类.
- 数值预报 /
- CQSSRAFS /
- 后处理模块
Abstract: Chongqing Storm Scale Rapid Assimilation Forecast System (CQSSRAFS) is a numerical forecast system, based on ARPS and WRF. Firstly, the numerical system was briefly introduced, then we elaborated the construction of the subsequent post-processing module and relevant technical methods. Taking two regional rainstorms in 2014 for example, three kinds of post-processing module wrfpost (based on NCL), arpsplot (based on ARPS) and wrf2micaps werepresented. Meanwhile, we illustrated the numerical prediction products generated from mesoscale forecast and rapid assimilation forecast sufficiently. Also, the micaps format products were shown. In the mesoscale forecast, especially precipitation, temperature and humidity field, wind field and T-lnPfigure have good guidance significance for short-range forecast. It has good reference value for the forecast products such as precipitation, radar reflectivity, wind shear and severe convection index generated from the rapid assimilation forecast. Moreover, the micaps format products generated from wrf2micaps post-processing module is convenient for forecaster, and also provides basis for model evaluation and the development of other products. The construction of three numerical prediction post-processing modules provides a strong guarantee for the operation of Chongqing numerical forecast. In the later stage, more optimization tests should be carried out to improve the operation efficiency and enrich the forecast products.
- numerical forecast /
- CQSSRAFS /
- post-processing module .

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重庆数值预报后处理系统技术研究

高松,杜钦,吴钲,赵磊,高阳华

重庆市气象科学研究所, 重庆 401147

收稿日期: 2018-04-14

关键词:

摘要: 重庆风暴尺度快速更新同化预报系统（CQSSRAFS）是基于ARPS和WRF建立的数值预报业务系统.本研究首先对该系统进行了简要介绍，然后对其后处理模块的构建与相关技术方法进行阐述，以2014年两次区域暴雨过程为例，给出3种后处理模块—wrfpost （基于NCL）、arpsplot （基于ARPS）和wrf2micaps的运行流程、各类预报产品，同时，对中尺度预报、快速更新同化预报和micaps格式的数值预报产品进行解释与说明.中尺度预报中特别是降水、温湿场、风场以及T-lnP图相关预报产品对短期预报具有较好的指导意义；快速更新同化预报中生成的降水、雷达反射率、风切变和强对流指数等相关预报产品对短临预报有较好的参考价值.此外，wrf2micaps后处理模块生成的micaps格式产品为预报员的使用提供了方便，也为模式检验和其他产品的开发提供了基础.3种数值预报后处理模块的构建为重庆数值预报业务的运行提供了有力保障，后期需对其进行更多的优化测试，以提高运行效率和丰富适合本地的产品种类.

English Abstract

Technical Research on Chongqing Numerical Forecast Post-Processing System

重庆市气象科学研究所, 重庆 401147

Received Date: 2018-04-14

Keywords:

Abstract: Chongqing Storm Scale Rapid Assimilation Forecast System (CQSSRAFS) is a numerical forecast system, based on ARPS and WRF. Firstly, the numerical system was briefly introduced, then we elaborated the construction of the subsequent post-processing module and relevant technical methods. Taking two regional rainstorms in 2014 for example, three kinds of post-processing module wrfpost (based on NCL), arpsplot (based on ARPS) and wrf2micaps werepresented. Meanwhile, we illustrated the numerical prediction products generated from mesoscale forecast and rapid assimilation forecast sufficiently. Also, the micaps format products were shown. In the mesoscale forecast, especially precipitation, temperature and humidity field, wind field and T-lnPfigure have good guidance significance for short-range forecast. It has good reference value for the forecast products such as precipitation, radar reflectivity, wind shear and severe convection index generated from the rapid assimilation forecast. Moreover, the micaps format products generated from wrf2micaps post-processing module is convenient for forecaster, and also provides basis for model evaluation and the development of other products. The construction of three numerical prediction post-processing modules provides a strong guarantee for the operation of Chongqing numerical forecast. In the later stage, more optimization tests should be carried out to improve the operation efficiency and enrich the forecast products.