江津地区精细化气温预报模型研究
On Refined Forecast System of Maximum and Minimum Temperatures in Jiangjin
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摘要: 利用T639和欧洲中心细网格的气温数值模式预报产品及相应时段内研究区各镇街站点的实况气温建立动态预报方程, 对江津地区各镇街2472h日最高气温、日最低气温进行预报, 为方便该模型投入业务运行使用, 编制了基于数值预报模式产品的精细化气温预报软件, 并在实际业务运行中取得了初步效果.对软件的初期试运行发现, 软件预报较主观预报在业务评分方面有较明显的提升, 对预报员主观预报有一定的指导意义.Abstract: Based on the T639 and Ecmwf refined net numerical forecasting pattern products in temperature, as well as actual temperature in the station in corresponding period, dynamic forecast equation was concluded to formulate the daily maximum temperature forecast in 2472 hin every town and streets of Jiangjin City.In order to facilitate this model to be put into current operation, a fine temperature prediction software based on numerical prediction model is established.The software has achieved initial results in the actual operation.After the initial trial run of software, the results show that this prediction software has more obvious promotion than subjective forecasting.It can make contribution to weather forecasters for subjective prediction.
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Key words:
- refinization /
- daily maximum and minimum temperatures /
- multi-mode integration /
- dynamic forecast .
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