引用本文:孙丽璐, 吴奇, 赵娟, 陈甜, 王霜, 赵辉.我国2004-2015年交通事故影响因素实证研究[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2018,40(11):112~118
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我国2004-2015年交通事故影响因素实证研究
孙丽璐, 吴奇, 赵娟, 陈甜, 王霜, 赵辉1,2
1. 重庆理工大学 经济金融学院, 重庆 400054;2. 陆军军医大学 第三附属医院交通医学研究所, 重庆 400042
摘要:
我国每年因交通事故造成巨额生命财产损失,严重危害公民健康,给经济建设和社会和谐稳定带来重要影响.道路交通安全处于动态平衡过程,经济因素对道路交通安全有重要影响.该文研究2004-2015年交通事故伤亡人数变化规律,并运用统计学分析方法,探索GDP、人均可支配收入、汽车拥有量、交通投资、道路通车里程和直接财产损失等因素变化对交通事故伤亡人数变化的影响.结果表明:国内生产总值、汽车拥有量、交通投资、道路通车里程等影响因素变化率与道路交通事故死亡人数增长率有显著相关性,其中国内生产总值、道路交通投资和道路通车里程增长率与道路交通事故死亡人数增长率呈负相关,而汽车拥有量与道路交通死亡人数增长率呈正相关.
关键词:  生命财产损失  经济发展  交通事故影响因素  计量经济模型
DOI:10.13718/j.cnki.xdzk.2018.11.016
分类号:F503;U491.3
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(31470913);国家社会科学项目(2015XSH021);重庆市教委项目(16SKJD35).
An Empirical Study of the Influencing Factors of Traffic Accidents in China from 2004 to 2015
SUN Li-lu, WU Qi, ZHAO Juan, CHEN Tian, WANG Shuang, ZHAO Hui1,2
1. School of Economy and Finance, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing 400054, China;2. Institute of Transportation Medicine, Third Affiliated Hospital of Army Military Medical University, Chongqing 400042, China
Abstract:
China's traffic accidents cause huge losses of life and property annually, which seriously jeopardizes citizens' health and social stability. In this paper, the data of traffic accident casualties from 2004 to 2015 are used to explore the influences of the changes in economic factors, such as GDP, per capita disposable income, car ownership, traffic investment, road mileage, urban population and direct property loss, on the number of casualties in traffic accidents by means of variance test and regression analysis. The results show that GDP, car ownership, traffic investment and road mileage have a significant impact on the increase in the number of traffic casualties, of which GDP, car ownership, traffic investment and road mileage are in a significant negative correlation with the number of traffic casualties while car ownership is in a positive correlation with it.
Key words:  loss of life and property  economic development  influencing factor of traffic accidents  econometric model
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