引用本文:王钊, 王良虎.碳排放交易制度下的低碳经济发展——基于非期望DEA与DID模型的分析[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2019,41(5):85~95
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碳排放交易制度下的低碳经济发展——基于非期望DEA与DID模型的分析
王钊, 王良虎
西南大学 经济管理学院, 重庆 400715
摘要:
利用Malmquist-Luenberger指数方法测算我国2004-2016年低碳经济全要素生产率增长,在测算出各省份低碳经济全要素生产率增长的基础上,利用DID (diffelence in difference)模型检验碳排放交易制度对低碳经济全要素生产率增长的政策效应.通过模型检验的结果分析,得出碳排放交易制度对发展低碳经济起到正向作用的结论,其中主要是由于碳排放交易制度提高了技术效率,从而促进低碳经济增长.但是,由于碳排放交易制度在我国的推行尚处于初级阶段,其对发展低碳经济的作用较小.并且在对政策效应进行时间趋势检验时发现,政策效应呈现出倒“U”型结构,由此说明政策效应有一定的滞后性,并且伴随着时间的推移有所减弱.该文提出应从扩大碳排放交易范围、规范政府行为以及综合多种减排方式等方面促进低碳经济发展.
关键词:  Malmquist-Luenberger指数|DID模型|低碳经济
DOI:10.13718/j.cnki.xdzk.2019.05.014
分类号:F290
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(71473205);重庆市研究生科研创新项目(CYS18080).
Low-Carbon Economy Development Under the Carbon Emission Trading Scheme(ETS)——An Analysis Based on Undesired DEA and DID Models
WANG Zhao, WANG Liang-hu
School of Economics and Management, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
Abstract:
The Malmquist-Luenberger index method was used to measure the low-carbon economy total factor productivity growth in 2004-2016. Based on the calculation of low-carbon economy total factor productivity growth of each province,the DID model was used to test the carbon emission trading scheme for low-carbon economy total factor productivity growth. Through the analysis of the results of the model test,it was concluded that the carbon emission trading scheme played a positive role in the development of a low-carbon economy. The main reason was that the carbon emission trading scheme improved the technical efficiency,thus promoting the growth of the low-carbon economy. However,the implementation of the carbon emission trading scheme in China was still in its infancy,and its role in the development of a low-carbon economy was relatively small. A time trend test of the policy effect found that the policy effect exhibited an inverted "U"-type structure,which showed that the policy effect had a certain lag and was weakened with the passage of time. Finally,it was proposed that the development of the low-carbon economy should be promoted from the aspects of expanding the scope of carbon emission trading,regulating government behavior,and integrating multiple emission reduction methods.
Key words:  Malmquist-Luenberger index|DID model|low-carbon economy
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