引用本文:田梦, 曲宗希, 吴彬贵, 黄鹤, 张文煜.一种基于花授粉算法的WRF风速集合预报新模型[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2019,41(8):99~106
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一种基于花授粉算法的WRF风速集合预报新模型
田梦, 曲宗希, 吴彬贵, 黄鹤, 张文煜1,2
1. 兰州大学 大气科学学院/半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室, 兰州 730000;2. 天津市气象局, 天津 300074
摘要:
基于不同水平分辨率和边界层参数化方案的集合预报思路,应用花授粉算法与不限制负值的约束理论(FPA-NNCT)进行权重平均,提出一种新的风速集合预报模型(FPA-NNCT-WRF-E).利用山东省代表山地和海滨下垫面的2个风电场风速实测数据,将新模型与传统算术集合模型(M-WRF-E)以及FPA模型(FPA-WRF-E)的风速预报结果进行对比评估.结果表明:FPA-NNCT-WRF-E预报明显优于M-WRF-E和FPA-WRF-E的风速预报,与M-WRF-E相比,FPA-WRF-E将风速平均绝对误差(MAE)减小了20%以上,而新模型FPA-NNCT-WRF-E将MAE减小了38%以上.预报的准确性得到了提高.
关键词:  风速预报  集合预报  花授粉算法  预报精度
DOI:10.13718/j.cnki.xdzk.2019.08.015
分类号:P457.5
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41630421,41675018);天津市自然科学基金项目(17JCYBJC23400).
A Novel Ensemble Forecasting Model for Wind Speed Based on WRF and FPA
TIAN Meng, QU Zong-xi, WU Bin-gui, HUANG He, ZHANG Wen-yu1,2
1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University/Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, Lanzhou 730000, China;2. Tianjin Meteorological Bureau, Tianjin 300074, China
Abstract:
Considering multiple resolutions and boundary layer parameterizations, a novel ensemble forecast model (FPA-NNCT-WRF-E) is proposed in this paper, based on the weather research and forecasting model (WRF model), flower pollination algorithm (FPA) and no negative constraint theory (NNCT). And 10-day wind observations from two wind farms of different underlying surface are used to validate the effectiveness of this new model. The results show that FPA-NNCT-WRF-E is superior to M-WRF-E and FPA-WRF-E. Compared with M-WRF-E, FPA-WRF-E has reduced the mean absolute error (MAE) by more than 20%, while FPA-NNCT-WRF-E has reduced MAE by more than 38%.
Key words:  wind speed forecast  ensemble forecasting  flower pollination algorithm (FPA)  forecast accuracy
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