摘要:
以生态足迹模型为基础,通过对重庆市涪陵区统计年鉴为主要数据来源的分析,对涪陵区1997-2006年的生态足迹进行计算,并且利用线性回归模型预测2007-2012年生态足迹和生态承载力的变化情况.结果表明:涪陵区1997-2006年的人均生态足迹由1997年的1.129 2 hm2/人增加到2006年1.304 8 hm2/人,而人均生态承载力基本维持在0.85 hm2/人左右,同期生态赤字2005年增长到0.542 4 hm2/人.从1997-2006年生态足迹和生态赤字虽有小幅度波动,但总体增长趋势明显.线性回归模型显示,2012年涪陵区人均生态足迹为1.602 6 hm2,人均生态承载力为0.701 4 hm2,人均生态赤字达到0.901 2 hm2,增长趋势明显.基于以上分析得出涪陵区现有发展模式受到挑战,提出减少生态赤字的措施.
Abstract:
Based on an "Ecological Footprint" (EF) model, the ecological footprint from 1997 to 2006 of Fuling District of Chongqing was analyzed, and the potential changes for the period 2007-2012 in ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity of Fuling were predicted, using linear regression models. The results demonstrated that the per capita ecological footprint increased from 1. 129 2 to 1. 304 8 hectare in Fuling during 1997-2006, the per capita ecological carrying capacity remained at the level of 0.85 hectare,and the ecological deficit reached 0. 542 4 hectare in 2005. The ecological footprint and the ecological deficit showed a general trend of increase in the past 10 years with slight fluctuations. The linear regression models showed that the EF and DF will continue to increase during 2007-2012 and per capita EF, per capita ecological carrying capacity and per capita ecological deficit will be 1. 602 6, 0. 701 4 and 0. 901 2 hectare,respectively. Based on the above analysis, the paper offers some policy options for decreasing ED to tackle the challenges confronted by Fuling in its development.
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