摘要:
利用玉树地区1953-2013年逐月气温和降水资料, 采用气候倾向率、 5年滑动平均、 变异系数和M-K检验法, 分析玉树地区近61年气候变化特征, 结果表明: 近61年来玉树地区气温显著升高, 增幅为每10年增加0.32 ℃, 20世纪50年代气温变异系数最大, 各个季节的增温变化从大到小依次为春季、 夏季、 冬季、 秋季, M-K突变检验表明该地区在1989年发生显著突变;降水量总体减少, 减少速率为每10年减少3.21 mm, 20世纪50年代降水变异系数最大, 其中春季和夏季是各个年代降水比较丰沛的季节, 秋季和冬季是各个年代降水量偏少的季节, M-K突变检验表明该地区降水量在1997年发生显著突变.
关键词:
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气温
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降水量
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M-K突变检验
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玉树
Abstract:
The monthly precipitation, temperature and sunshine data of Yushu from 1953 to 2013 have been analyzed in this paper by five year moving average, climate tendency rate, M-K non-parametric test to analyze the characteristics of climate change in Yushu area in recent 61 years.The results indicate that the air temperature in Yushu area are increasing in recent 61 years.And the increase is 0.32℃ per decade.Besides, there are some differences in the warming tendency of each season.The descending order is spring, summer, winter and autumn.The precipitation in Yushu area are decreasing in the recent 61 years.And the negative increase is 3.21 mm per decade.And there are also some differences in the seasonal precipitation.The precipitation in spring and summer are relatively abundant.On the contrary, the low precipitation exists in autumn and winter.
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