产能过剩和产业政策对中国煤炭业市场力量的影响--基于新产业组织方法的实证研究
On Impact of Excess Capacity and Industrial Policy upon Market Power of Coal Industry in China---Based on NEIO Methods
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摘要: 研究了产能过剩和产业政策对煤炭业卖方市场力量的影响，进而分析造成煤炭价格维持低位的原因。基于2007—2014年煤炭业月度数据，以寡头竞争的均衡供给模型为基础，用广义矩估计法(GMM)进行实证分析，结果表明，产能过剩严重削弱了煤炭业市场力量，相比于煤炭工业“十一五”政策，煤炭工业“十二五”政策对行业市场力量的影响减弱了，并最终导致企业缺乏定价权，整体价格维持低位。在产业政策上，国家应当加大对煤炭业落后产能的淘汰，进一步提高煤炭业进入门槛，并加快现有中小型煤企的退出、整改、重组。
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关键词:
- 煤炭行业、市场力量、推测变分、结构模型
Abstract: This article examines the impact of excess capacity and industrial policy on the market power of coal industry in China in order to explain the low coal price.A structural oligopolistic model of demand and supply has been estimated with the monthly data of coal industry from 2007 to 2014 using the Generalized Method of Moments.The empirical results show that excess capacity weakens market power and compared to the coal industry “Eleventh Five-Year”policy,and the impact of “Twelfth Five-Year”policy on the in-dustry market power weakens,which suggests that excess capacity leads to lower pricing power.Then we suggest using industrial policy to eliminate more unenlightened production capacity,improve the barriers to entry and speed up the implementation of exit,rectification and restructuring of small and medium sized coal enterprises. -
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