Analysis of High and Low Temperature Hazard Risks for Single Cropping Rice in Sichuan

Yan-mei PANG; Jia LIU; Chao CHEN

doi:10.13718/j.cnki.xdzk.2017.08.002

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Analysis of high and low temperature hazard risks for single cropping rice can produce important theoretical support for regional disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the rice observation data and meteorological data during 1981-2012 collected from 26 meteorological stations in Sichuan, the high and low temperature hazard risks for single cropping rice were quantitatively analyzed according to disaster frequency, disaster time and disaster intensity. The result showed that frequency of low temperature during the nursery period and high temperature during the seed-filling and ripening period were more than 60% in most of the study regions for single cropping rice in Sichuan. The times of low temperature disaster during the nursery period and high temperature disaster during the seed-filling and ripening period in most regions were 26-50 times. The intensity of low temperature disaster during the nursery period and high temperature disaster during the seed-filling and ripening period in most regions were 4-12 and 6-9 days/time, respectively. In the 30 years (1981-2012), the time and frequency of low temperature disaster during the nursery period for single cropping rice decreased, the time of high temperature disaster during the flowering period did not change significantly, and the intensity was decreasing, and the time and frequency of high temperature disaster during the seed-filling and ripening period increased. Large differences existed in high and low temperature hazard risks in different regions and different rice growth stages in Sichuan. Therefore, we need to address the negative impacts of meteorological disasters according to the local conditions so as to ensure rice production safety.

Corresponding author: Chao CHEN

Received Date: 17/08/2016

Available Online: 20/08/2017

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Abstract: Analysis of high and low temperature hazard risks for single cropping rice can produce important theoretical support for regional disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the rice observation data and meteorological data during 1981-2012 collected from 26 meteorological stations in Sichuan, the high and low temperature hazard risks for single cropping rice were quantitatively analyzed according to disaster frequency, disaster time and disaster intensity. The result showed that frequency of low temperature during the nursery period and high temperature during the seed-filling and ripening period were more than 60% in most of the study regions for single cropping rice in Sichuan. The times of low temperature disaster during the nursery period and high temperature disaster during the seed-filling and ripening period in most regions were 26-50 times. The intensity of low temperature disaster during the nursery period and high temperature disaster during the seed-filling and ripening period in most regions were 4-12 and 6-9 days/time, respectively. In the 30 years (1981-2012), the time and frequency of low temperature disaster during the nursery period for single cropping rice decreased, the time of high temperature disaster during the flowering period did not change significantly, and the intensity was decreasing, and the time and frequency of high temperature disaster during the seed-filling and ripening period increased. Large differences existed in high and low temperature hazard risks in different regions and different rice growth stages in Sichuan. Therefore, we need to address the negative impacts of meteorological disasters according to the local conditions so as to ensure rice production safety.

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水稻是中国三大粮食作物之一，1949年至2009年间，我国水稻的平均播种面积占粮食作物总播种面积的27%，总产量占粮食总产量的42%，单位面积产量为粮食作物平均单产的1.52倍^[1].四川省是中国13个粮食主产区之一，水稻是四川省最主要的粮食作物，其产量占粮食总产的42.6%.在全球气候变暖背景下，四川省的气候资源和农业气候资源也发生了相应变化^[2-4]，热量条件改善固然有利于作物生物量的积累，但与气候变暖相伴发生的气候变率的增大则明显增加了干旱、高温、低温和洪涝等农业气象灾害的发生频率.部分年份发生的持续低温、高温灾害造成该区域水稻出现烂秧或者秧苗质量降低、花而不实或者结实不良的现象，严重影响了该地区和中国粮食的安全生产^[5].

有研究指出^[6-7]，水稻生长季内发生的农业气象灾害，如干旱、高温热害、低温冷害、连阴雨等会对水稻造成严重影响，不同地区、不同时段发生的高温和低温灾害对水稻生长的影响不同^[8-10].气候变化背景下高温、低温灾害对水稻产量形成的影响已引起国内外学者的广泛关注^[11-14]，然而，针对四川省单季稻高温、低温致灾因子危险性分析的研究较少.本文基于四川省地面气象观测数据和农业气象观测站的单季稻生产数据，利用数理统计方法，从灾害发生次数、频率和强度3个方面评估四川省单季稻生育期内高温和低温致灾因子的危险性，拟为四川省水稻的防灾、减灾和稻作制度的调整提供科学依据，为保障国家粮食安全及推动农业经济的可持续发展提供参考.

3. 结论与讨论

1981年-2012年，四川省各个站点单季稻秧田期低温、开花期高温和灌浆结实期高温的平均发生频率分别为68.8%、15.8%和67.1%.近30年来，秧田期低温发生频率除盆地中部较低外，其余大部均超过60%；开花期和灌浆结实期高温发生频率的空间分布总体呈西低东高的趋势.

1981年-2012年，各个站点单季稻秧田期低温的平均年发生次数为1.10次，年极端发生次数为1.73次；各个站点开花期和灌浆结实期高温的平均年发生次数分别为0.20次和1.10次，年极端发生次数分别为1.00次和2.31次.近30年来，大部份地区秧田期的低温发生次数在50次以下；开花期高温发生次数总体偏少，仅在盆地东北部达到13~17次；大部份地区灌浆结实期的高温发生次数为26~65次.

1981年-2012年，各个站点单季稻秧田期低温平均灾害强度为5.83天/次，极值为9.93天/次；开花期和灌浆结实期的高温平均灾害强度分别为2.99天/次和6.52天/次，极值分别为7.94天/次和14.03天/次.近30年来，大部地份区秧田期的低温强度为4~12天/次；开花期高温发生强度普遍较低；灌浆结实期高温发生强度也呈东高西低的分布特征，高值区集中在盆地中、东部，强度为8~9天/次.

1981年-2012年，单季稻秧田期低温发生次数呈显著减少趋势，而发生强度呈不显著的降低趋势；开花期高温发生次数呈不显著的增加趋势，而发生强度呈不显著的降低趋势；灌浆结实期高温发生次数和强度均呈不显著的增加趋势.

在全球气候变化背景下，四川省单季稻秧田期低温致灾因子危险性风险降低，但仍要关注该阶段水分不足对水稻出苗的影响.同时，四川省单季稻生育后期高温灾害发生次数的增加将不利于单季稻的正常灌浆，甚至导致严重减产，未来可以选择中、晚熟品种以规避高温热害的危害；其次，培育和采用抗热的水稻品种也是应对热害变化的重要措施之一.另外，虽然四川省稻区现有不少水利工程，但标准低、病害多、老化严重，渠系配套差且破坏严重，灾害之年难以满足需水要求，应加快大中型水利工程修建的步伐，尽可能多地蓄积降水，增加水稻的保灌面积，同时发展节水灌溉，以应对后期灾害的影响.

水稻高温和低温灾害的发生是一个复杂的过程，它和地形条件、天气气候背景、种植制度以及品种等诸多因素相关，本文仅利用温度指标和生育期数据评估气候变化背景下四川省单季稻高低温致灾因子的危险性风险，未来还需要结合孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力等进行四川省单季稻高低温灾害的风险评估，为水稻的实际生产服务.

Figure (7) Table (3) Reference (22)

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Analysis of High and Low Temperature Hazard Risks for Single Cropping Rice in Sichuan

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