Forecast on Prospect about Influence of Urbanization Gradual Progress on Arable Land in Chongqing
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Key words:
- Chongqing,urbanization,Arable land,forecasting,driving factors,logistic model,STRIPAT model /
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Abstract: In order to explore urbanization evolution trend effect on the change of cultivated land area ,by constructing the evolution of urbanization logistic model predicted 2012-2030 in Chongqing city urbaniza‐tion level evolution ;construction STRIPAT expansion model to measure the urbanization rate of marginal contribution to the area of arable land ,fitting of Chongqing city farming ground prospects for changes in the product .The results show that the trend of the urbanization in the future of Chongqing is not changed , but the intensity of the impact of the impact of the intensity of the slowdown ,gradually approaching zero . We should follow the law of urbanization ,reasonably develop urbanization ,scientifically formulate land management policies ,and protect arable land strictly .