城市建设用地需求预测--以九江市为例
On Demand Prediction of Urban Construction Land ---A Case Study of Jiujiang City
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摘要: 以九江市2003年—2012年的相关统计数据为基础，将双因素理论和灰色系统理论引入建设用地预测，建立预测模型；根据关联度综合分析各因素（人口和固定资产投资）对九江市建设用地的影响，进而加权修正预测模型，并对预测结果进行分析与评价．双因素中的人口规模充分考虑宏观政策的影响，并结合九江市人均建设用地现状，采取高、低2种方案进行预测；为克服概率统计中样本数不足的难题，固定资产投资主要运用灰色GM （1，1）模型预测．结果表明：到2015年末和2020年末，九江市城区建设用地需求预测值分别为28.93～29.98 km2和84.69～86.31 km2，预测结果通过精度检验，符合九江市经济社会发展趋势，具有可行性．Abstract: Predicting the demand of urban construction land scientifically plays an important role in the eco‐nomic development and sustainable utilization of land resources .Based on the relevant statistical data of Ji‐ujiang from 2003 to 2012 ,the double factors theory and the Gray system theory were introduced to predict urban construction land ,then prediction model was established ,and finally the results have been analyzed and evaluated .The Gray GM (1 ,1) model was mainly used in the prediction process and the impact of mac‐roeconomic policies was given full consideration too .The results showed that the prediction of urban con‐struction land were between 28 .93~29 .98 km2 and 84 .69~86 .31 km2 by the end of 2015 and the end of 2020 in central city zone of Jiujiang .The prediction passed the accuracy test with practicability .
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