1644-1911年云贵地区旱涝灾害的周期特征以及对太阳黑子活动的响应

蒋婷婷,毕硕本,鲁颖,赵峰,孙力

doi:10.13718/j.cnki.xsxb.2018.10.012

西南师范大学学报(自然科学版)

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1644-1911年云贵地区旱涝灾害的周期特征以及对太阳黑子活动的响应

蒋婷婷,毕硕本,鲁颖,赵峰,孙力. 1644-1911年云贵地区旱涝灾害的周期特征以及对太阳黑子活动的响应[J]. 西南师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2018, 43(10): 56-65. doi: 10.13718/j.cnki.xsxb.2018.10.012

引用本文:

JIANG Ting-ting, BI Shuo-ben, LU Ying, ZHAO Feng, SUN Li. Periodic Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Multiple Time Scales and Response to Sunspot Activity in Yunnan-Guizhou Area from 1644 to 1911[J]. Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2018, 43(10): 56-65. doi: 10.13718/j.cnki.xsxb.2018.10.012

Citation:

JIANG Ting-ting, BI Shuo-ben, LU Ying, ZHAO Feng, SUN Li. Periodic Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Multiple Time Scales and Response to Sunspot Activity in Yunnan-Guizhou Area from 1644 to 1911[J]. Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2018, 43(10): 56-65. doi: 10.13718/j.cnki.xsxb.2018.10.012

1644-1911年云贵地区旱涝灾害的周期特征以及对太阳黑子活动的响应

蒋婷婷,毕硕本,鲁颖,赵峰,孙力

南京信息工程大学地理与遥感学院, 南京 210044

Periodic Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Multiple Time Scales and Response to Sunspot Activity in Yunnan-Guizhou Area from 1644 to 1911

JIANG Ting-ting, BI Shuo-ben, LU Ying, ZHAO Feng, SUN Li

School of Geography and Remote Sensing, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

摘要: 为探究历史时期气候灾害特征及影响因子，建立了清代1644-1911年云贵地区的旱涝指数序列，采用滑动t检验和总体经验模态分解（EEMD）分析了清代云贵地区旱涝灾害的突变特征和多时间尺度周期性特征，研究表明：清代云贵地区旱涝指数整体较平稳，呈现先明显增加后减少，然后趋于平稳，清末又明显增加的趋势，旱涝指数序列具有多个跃变点，且具有显著的2.8 a和6.6 a年际周期，13.0 a和40.2 a的年代际周期.由旱涝灾害年次和年均县次比的空间分布图发现，其具有同旱同涝的空间分布特征.由于13.0 a的周期与太阳黑子相对数序列的周期接近，故采用交叉小波分析着重探究了太阳黑子活动对云贵地区旱涝变化的影响，发现云贵地区旱涝指数序列同太阳黑子相对数序列在3~6 a的时间尺度具有强凝聚性共振周期.
- 云贵地区 /
- 旱涝 /
- EEMD /
- 交叉小波分析 /
- 太阳黑子
Abstract: With the increasing global climate change, the drought and flood disasters events of our country intensified in recent years, so it is necessary to study the characteristics and influencing factors of climate disasters during the historical period. In this paper, the drought and flood index series of Yunnan-Guizhou area from 1644-1911 was established. Sliding t-test was used to find the mutation points and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD) was used to analysis the periodicity of the sequence on different timescales. The results show that the drought and flood index in the Yunnan-Guizhou area is relatively stable which shows a significant decreased after increased and then leveled off, and the last significant increase trend. Drought and flood index sequence has multiple transition points and has the inter-annual scale period of 2.8a, 6.6a, inter-decadal scale period of 13.0a and 40.0a.According to the spatial distribution maps and the average annual ratio of county maps of drought and flood disasters, it has been found that the drought and flood disasters have the same spatial distribution characteristics. Because of its 13.0a period are close to those of sunspot, we used cross wavelet transform to analyze the influence of sunspot activity on the variation of drought and flood in Yunnan-Guizhou area. It is found that the sequence of drought and flood index in Yunnan-Guizhou area has strong cohesive resonance period at 3-6a time scales with the sunspot relative number sequence.
- Yunnan-Guizhou area /
- drought and flood /
- EEMD /
- cross wavelet analysis /
- sunspot .

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1644-1911年云贵地区旱涝灾害的周期特征以及对太阳黑子活动的响应

蒋婷婷,毕硕本,鲁颖,赵峰,孙力

南京信息工程大学地理与遥感学院, 南京 210044

收稿日期: 2018-03-22

关键词:

摘要: 为探究历史时期气候灾害特征及影响因子，建立了清代1644-1911年云贵地区的旱涝指数序列，采用滑动t检验和总体经验模态分解（EEMD）分析了清代云贵地区旱涝灾害的突变特征和多时间尺度周期性特征，研究表明：清代云贵地区旱涝指数整体较平稳，呈现先明显增加后减少，然后趋于平稳，清末又明显增加的趋势，旱涝指数序列具有多个跃变点，且具有显著的2.8 a和6.6 a年际周期，13.0 a和40.2 a的年代际周期.由旱涝灾害年次和年均县次比的空间分布图发现，其具有同旱同涝的空间分布特征.由于13.0 a的周期与太阳黑子相对数序列的周期接近，故采用交叉小波分析着重探究了太阳黑子活动对云贵地区旱涝变化的影响，发现云贵地区旱涝指数序列同太阳黑子相对数序列在3~6 a的时间尺度具有强凝聚性共振周期.

English Abstract

Periodic Characteristics of Drought and Flood in Multiple Time Scales and Response to Sunspot Activity in Yunnan-Guizhou Area from 1644 to 1911

南京信息工程大学地理与遥感学院, 南京 210044

Received Date: 2018-03-22

Keywords:

Abstract: With the increasing global climate change, the drought and flood disasters events of our country intensified in recent years, so it is necessary to study the characteristics and influencing factors of climate disasters during the historical period. In this paper, the drought and flood index series of Yunnan-Guizhou area from 1644-1911 was established. Sliding t-test was used to find the mutation points and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD) was used to analysis the periodicity of the sequence on different timescales. The results show that the drought and flood index in the Yunnan-Guizhou area is relatively stable which shows a significant decreased after increased and then leveled off, and the last significant increase trend. Drought and flood index sequence has multiple transition points and has the inter-annual scale period of 2.8a, 6.6a, inter-decadal scale period of 13.0a and 40.0a.According to the spatial distribution maps and the average annual ratio of county maps of drought and flood disasters, it has been found that the drought and flood disasters have the same spatial distribution characteristics. Because of its 13.0a period are close to those of sunspot, we used cross wavelet transform to analyze the influence of sunspot activity on the variation of drought and flood in Yunnan-Guizhou area. It is found that the sequence of drought and flood index in Yunnan-Guizhou area has strong cohesive resonance period at 3-6a time scales with the sunspot relative number sequence.