重庆地区“5.30”暴雨过程的数值模拟及诊断分析
On Numerical Simulation and Diagnosis of Heavy Rainfall Case on 30 May in Chongqing Area
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摘要: 利用WRF(Weather Research Forecast)中尺度数值模式模拟了2004年5月29日20时至30日20时发生在重庆及周边地区的暴雨过程,使用模式输出的高分辨率资料从动力角度对这次暴雨过程进行了诊断分析.结果表明:WRF模式较成功地模拟出了本次大气降水的演变过程,可为暴雨预报和物理诊断提供参考;模拟诊断表明在预报业务中使用螺旋度、非地转湿Q矢量和等位温面图的流线分析等可能会提高预报效果.Abstract: Based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF),a heavy rainfall event occurring between 29 and 30 May 2004 in Chongqing and the surrounding areas was simulated.From the perspective of dynamic,the rainstorm was diagnosed based on high resolution data of model output.The results show that the WRF model successfully reproduced the evolution process of the actual precipitation,which could provide reference for local storm forecasting and physical diagnosis.Application of helicity,ageostrophic wet Q vector and streamline in potential temperature surface to forecast operation may improve forecasting precision.
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